3 Min. Gold News – Synopsis of Jim Rickards with Triggernometry – Part 1 – April 23, 2022

 

3 Minute Gold News

You’re thinking of the future. Of changes. And of safely getting from here to there.

 

A synopsis of Jim Rickards, New York Times bestselling author of The New Case for Gold, The Death of Money, Currency Wars, The Road to Ruin, Aftermath and The New Great Depression with Triggernometry.

Jim’s new book “Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy”, is available for pre-order now.

Jim is the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, former general counsel for Long Term Capital Management, and a consultant to the U.S. Intelligence community and U.S. Department of Defence.

 

Part 1

 

Topics:

 

Inflation
Russia & Ukraine
Supply Chain Issues

 

Full Interview link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mU3rPTxev-o&t=9s

 

Screen Shot 2022-04-23 at 1.29.04 PM

 

INFLATION

Inflation is here now.

The Federal Reserve painted themselves into a corner.

They can subdue the inflation but only at the cost of creating a very severe recession.

They’ll be the last to know because they have flawed models and they’re in their own bubble. They have defective ways of thinking about the economy and they’re creatures of inertia.

They don’t make changes quickly.

The Fed aren’t nimble and will only see the effects of their actions when it may be too late.

At that point they might stop raising interest rates and maybe lower them. That might save us from the recession but it would amplify the inflation.

2013 – 2020 REPLAY

What’s happening now is the same thing that happened in 2013 – 2020, but it’s sped up.

The Fed tried to put everything back to normal after the 2008 Financial Crisis, but they failed and their actions sunk the stock market.

They tell the market what they’re going to do. They’ve said, and you can expect, they’ll raise interest rates 50 basis points now in May 2022, and they’ll reduce their asset purchases.

In other words, they’re running the same playbook they tried in 2013 onward.

Why do it again when they failed?

They can’t get out of this rising inflation without causing both a recession and a stock market crash.

Will they do this?

It’s one or the other.

We’re either getting a recession and stock market crash, or else inflation that takes off and goes wild.

We’ll get signals along the way that show which way it’s going.

RUSSIA & UKRAINE

The supply chain for wheat and other things is going to get worse.

Jim just finished writing his latest book, “Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy”, which is available for pre-order now.

The release date has been delayed because of paper supply and other printing issues affected by supply chain disruptions.

He wrote a book on supply chain issues, which has been delayed by supply chain issues (funny but not funny).

SUPPLY CHAIN

The Ukraine war on the ground is tragic.

The supply chain was breaking down before the war.

Then came the pandemic.

Right now China has shut down Shanghai, and next to Shanghai is Ningbo, which is the biggest port in China.

Most of the container ships showing up at the Port of Los Angeles come from Ningbo.

The global supply chain is being disrupted by that shut down.

As well, Russia and Ukraine combined is 25% of world wheat exports.

There are countries, like Lebanon, that get 100% of their wheat from one of those two places. So, Lebanon was a basket case before this, and now there will be no food. There are countries in Africa where people are going to be starving.

It means inflation, dislocation and a humanitarian tragedy on a colossal scale. You’re looking at starvation.

And it’s not just wheat.

The US announced that no semi-conductors or high tech equipment can be shipped to Russia.

Plus, the US declared that no country anywhere manufacturing semi-conductors or high tech equipment using US technology or tools under license from the US can ship to Russia either.

So far China has towed the line and not shipped to Russia.

In response, Russia cut off the export of the specific gas needed to power the lasers that make the semi-conductors. Odessa, Ukraine, has the plant that manufactures 70% of that gas used around the world to etch semi-conductors.

That means no semi-conductors for the world, not just Russia.

Replacements for disruptions can be done, but in some cases it takes years to develop workarounds.

New cars have 1,700 semi-conductors. They even have semi-conductors instead of carburetors.

It hasn’t hit hard yet because manufacturers are going through their emergency short-term disruption inventory.

But when they go to re-order inputs, after their 30-day inventory is sold, they find that either the price of new parts has tripled or it’s not available at any price. Or else you can order but it won’t arrive until next year because of shipping disruptions.

The list is long: aluminum, electric vehicle parts and recharging issues. The building of electric vehicles done in China is mostly powered by coal.

And the batteries themselves need nickel. Where does a lot of the nickel come from? Russia. Where does lithium come from? Many of the mines are in Russia.

Aircraft need a lot of aluminum. Where does it come from? A lot comes from Russia. Titanium? Russia.

The Five Eyes are a group of countries who share intelligence between themselves that isn’t even shared with allies.

The Five Eyes are the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States.

They came out with a report of issues involving over 5,000 goods.

They discovered that over 50% of supply for many inputs for goods came from a single source, making them dependent on the country of origin.

This involves strategic metals and wheat from Ukraine and Russia, but how about no wheat from the United States? It’s planting season right now and there’s a supply issue with fertilizer.

Those who can even get fertilizer are paying triple. So no bumper crop this year because many can’t plant, and on top of the shortages prices will rise.

We live in a world of short attention spans, but we can see the effects will arrive in six months, nine months, a year from now.

 

Jim Rickards can be found on Twitter and at James Rickards Project.

 

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screen-shot-2022-01-15-at-9.20.11-pm

My thoughts….

A sword and a shield and a castle worth keeping
A rod and a reel and a season afloat
A dog and a pony are so entertaining
But if we all clap then we all know.

A weather report of a still, sullen morning
Building a castle of silica sand
Washed all away in an afternoon torrent
Who carries a fault with a shaking land

A shaming to share is the teacher to apple
A loss of the hours to bake up that pie
Pass out the piece of a coin of your making
All goes to dust if the builder says “mine”.

Who is the love and who is the foe now
When both declare the beautiful lie
Promise me promise what cannot be given
Take off the brake as hills are to climb

a folk tale of a peculiar politician and banker woe

Elaine~

 

Thank you to Jim Rickards for including me in his bestselling book The New Case for Gold.

Screen Shot 2016-03-11 at 9.49.31 AM

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Nothing on this site is intended as individual investment advice. We’re all watching which way the wind is blowing.

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Coins and Crowns

words and music Elaine Diane Taylor
SOCAN/ASCAP
from the album Coins and Crowns

Coins and Crowns is featured in Episode 1 of Mike Maloney’s documentary series Hidden Secrets of Money.

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Not Much of a Holiday (Bank Holidays and Media Persuasion)

words and music Elaine Diane Taylor

Single available on iTunes

 

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A Terrible Breeze    (War and Social Media)

The news comes down
A little bluebird sings
Words of war
Fire and furious things
Of testing might
‘Til no patience knows
If keeping still
Still keeps you safe at home

It’s a terrible breeze
They speak of today
Of threats that used to live a world away
We all know wind
Can blow both ways
And a terrible breeze can blow it all away

A worldwide net
Sees our village grow
Until we all forget
What each one used to know
How a blind bird’s wings
Can reach the shore
And turn the wheel of peace and war

Village fools sinking down, down, down
Debt and gold wound in numbered shrouds
Deal of a life it’s bread and clowns
Can we afford another go around?
The news comes down.

It’s a terrible breeze. The news comes down.

words and music Elaine Diane Taylor

Single available on iTunes

 

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AlbumCover.PreparingfortheFall

Preparing for the Fall is a live boutique album available for digital download  — featuring Wag the Dog, Black Swan Dive,  American Pie and Gods of the Copybook Headings. Also available on iTunes, Google Music, Amazon Music and major digital distributors.

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The Gods of the Copybook Headings

words by Rudyard Kipling and music by Elaine Diane Taylor

from the album Preparing for the Fall.

 

The copybooks of the early 1900s gave us all the wisdom we need. The sayings that were copied are the truths, the gods of our world. All the empires who followed the gods of the marketplace have fallen, and there’s terror and slaughter when the gods of the copybook headings return. The lyrics are by Rudyard Kipling. One of my gurus.

Another Week on Wall Street

words and music Elaine Diane Taylor

from the album Coins and Crowns.

A little grease (Greece) is floating out to sea, and little pigs (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) are bobbing up and down, they’ll send a storm and we’ll see, when the tide goes out who’s naked on the beach“. The world is changing as we know it.

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Nothing on this site is intended as individual investment advice. We’re all watching which way the wind is blowing.

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