3 Minute Gold News
An interview synopsis of David Morgan, the silver guru, Publisher & CEO of The Morgan Report and author of The Silver Manifesto, with Daniela Cambone, Director of Global Media at ITM Trading and host of The Daniela Cambone Show.
SILVER TODAY
“Silver will scare you out or wear you out.”
After a high of just under $50 US per ounce in the 1980s, silver stayed down at about $5 per ounce for twenty years.
That’s enough to wear you out.
But silver also makes big moves very quickly and exceed the expectations of the most ardent bull at times.
Then the metal does what it just did, which is to drop quickly from $84 in the general access market (through futures contracts, physical bullion, ETFs or OTC dealing), down about $10 per ounce in less than a day, before the market opening in New York.
The quick drop isn’t surprising because silver got ahead of itself.
We’ve had massive moves up recently, so it’s natural in all markets to see this back and forth at some point.
As the market is rising, there will be pull backs that shake people to sell, until there are a few who hold for the whole ride up to the very top price.
David is fairly certain we haven’t seen the ultimate peak in silver yet.
There is so much misinformation out there on social media right now.
Most of David’s newsletter community are conservative, realistic, and are in for the long haul.
They don’t use leverage, but the market has had such big moves up that followers have been asking about options trading and spreads.
They are asking what is a good way to leverage their current silver investments.
This said to David that we’re going to get a pull back now fairly quickly.
GOLD VS SILVER
Gold is monetary stability.
It is established. Central banks buy it and have been increasing their buying over the last number of years.
Silver has utility and is only is a partial monetary metal, and so is much more volatile and much more emotional.
Comparing gold and silver like looking at the DOW Jones vs the NASDAQ.
When the tech bubble popped, the DOW went down about 30%, while the NASDAQ went down something like 80%.
Your core position, especially for the older holder, should be gold because it is less volatile.
Here’s what David does:
He holds 75% of his silver as his core position, and uses 25% to trade as there’s a price breakout. He has a stop loss and moves it up as the price is breaking out. When the price lift is exhausted he takes profit from that 25%.
David plans to hold his core 75% holding until we’ve hit the top.
We’re not there yet.
PRICE
90% of the global population, regardless of which nation they live in, are looking at silver’s price as the current spot price against their national currency.
That’s absolutely the wrong way to look at it.
The way to look at silver is to compare it to how many barrels of oil, how much real estate, or how much stock it equals.
That’s how you should look at it.
During the Weimar Republic hyperinflation people put their money into stocks to keep some value, but the only thing that stayed above the inflation rate was gold and silver.
When someone is thinking of selling some silver or gold they should look at the value of it compared to real estate, oil or stocks, and then consider selling to exchange for one of those if it is overvalued against it.
SILVER PRICE PROJECTION
A realistic way to look at the silver price is to consider the gold-to-silver ratio.
The ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it would take to buy one ounce of gold.
Investors watch this ratio to decide which metal might be “cheaper” or “more expensive” relative to the other.
Divide the current price of one ounce of gold by the current price of one ounce of silver.
A high ratio is 80 or above, and means silver is cheap compared to gold. A low ratio is 50 or below, and means gold is cheaper. In modern times the average is about 60 – 75.
David believes that the top in silver will be at a minimum a ratio of 50, and then maybe at that point the silver bull run is done and that’s all it’s going to do this time.
In a major secular bull market (where the dominant trend is up, and there’s new all-time highs repeatedly achieved), you can expect it to do better than it’s done before, which is about 31.
At that point you can ask if that’s all its got.
But remember that silver tends to outperform gold in the end.
David thinks the ratio could go to 16-to-one as the top this time.
If you sold at 31 and it goes to 16 then that’s double and you would have missed out by selling early.
But, at the same time, you will wish you had a plan to start selling some as it’s going up, and then have a plan on how to ride the price back down.
Don’t just hold it all the way up and back down.
Don’t hold your silver all the way up and then keep holding it all as the price comes back down.
When you trade out you’ll be trading it for fiat, which is losing value, so trade it into something else. If you don’t see anything that looks good then it’s better to hold it in fiat than to keep holding the silver while the price comes back down.
You have to lock in some profits.
David has his paid newsletter where he’s outlining his strategy for this, for those interested.
COMEX
The COMEX has been raising the margin requirements for silver futures contracts.
It is very common in the futures markets, not just for silver, that if things get out of control the exchange increases the margin requirements.
This flushes out those that don’t have the cash available to meet the increased requirement, so cools down the price.
For example, years ago there was a rush up in the price of Palladium because Ford Motors changed their catalytic converters from Platinum to Palladium.
The exchange lifted the margin requirement again and again, until you had to put up 2x the cash price to keep your futures position. So, it’s happened before.
SHANGHAI
The Shanghai market has been selling silver at a higher price than North American spot, sometimes as much as $8 higher.
This is an arbitrage opportunity, where a holder could ship their physical silver to Shanghai and sell it for the higher price.
But these gaps close very quickly and if it doesn’t then we know something else is going on.
There’s a lot of misinformation out there right now.
Right now, refiners are not taking in silver coins that aren’t .999 pure, because there is a backlog of orders for Good Delivery bars, which are 1,000 ounces at .999 pure silver.
Refiners are filling backorders for the CME, the LBMA, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
So will we get an equilibrium of price that closes the gap?
Asia could continue buying at a monumental level for both industry and investment. This could mean that the demand can’t be met and the premium stays high.
CHINA EXPORTS
Starting Jan 1, 2026, China is restricting silver leaving the country, requiring licenses and in effect limiting the metal leaving China, where it is a dominant refiner.
But this this fear is way overblown. It does not mean that silver won’t be leaving China.
It just means there will be a license required.
For example, if you’re exporting silver from China to India via the free market or black market, you’ll now need a license so China can get a better handle on how much is leaving.
China has not announced it is closing exports.
So, yes there’s a license coming in and no, it won’t make a big difference to the overall market price.
David Morgan can be found on X @silverguru22
Daniela Cambone can be found on X @DanielaCambone
I can be found on X @ElaineDTaylor
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Thank you to Jim Rickards for including me in his New York Times bestselling book The New Case for Gold. Jim’s X is now @RealJimRickards
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Nothing on this site is intended as individual investment advice. We’re all watching which way the wind is blowing.
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Gold is at historic highs because trust in government is at historic lows.
Communication Theory….
The alphabet took the magic of words and divided them into tiny repeatable units, strung along in written symbols that did not look like the sound. It then reformed the symbols into words and meaning in the quiet of one’s own mind.
And just like the alphabet, the invention of currency separated commodities and items of value into concise repeatable units.
Marshall McLuhan, communications theorist, said, “Print, in turning the vernaculars into mass media, or closed systems, created the uniform, centralizing forces of modern nationalism.”
The currency is packaged and shipped, identical, and is value as exchange for meaning of value to the receiver.
The oral societies are not led by the alphabet; they are led by the voice and ear. So each item is different, unique, and exchange is bartered over. These countries will not easily move to digital wallets and identical purchases. The unbanked are sometimes unbanked by choice.
Those in power are talking about taking care of the ‘unbanked’. But the care is misplaced.
A new bank account will earn the banker fees, and earn the central bank fees, and more debt money is created to keep the system going.
The expansion of the currency supply is not just a desire of the central banking system, it is its lifeblood.
If the unbanked have a devise with a digital wallet then they can be tracked as data and aggregated for easier control. A retail CBDC in the wallet of a formerly unbanked can be programmed by the central authority to be used to the benefit of the center.
It can be programmed to only be spent on a certain item or in a certain place.
To keep their central bank system going they must have ever expanding borrowing and debt.
Their system has failed because it has to fail.
Sooner or later you run out of people to lend to, so they need to add the unbanked, and they’ve created a ‘green’ issue, lying to create a fear for the planet, just to make new reasons to create more debt.
The business cycle cannot be stopped; it rises and falls as every closed system does. They know this, and so those in power are rushing to cement control with new technology before the first out of the gate with new products beat them to market share. The rush is to try to regulate to keep the status quo.
But it’s impossible.
AI is the new race.
Humans want to control the data believing their own control will keep them in control. No one has any idea what complex financial instruments will be created by generative AI. Controlled by itself. For whose benefit?
My biggest concerns at the moment come from Understanding Media, written by Marshall McLuhan. He writes of Nobel prize winning author Alias Canneti’s book, Crowds and Power, talking about the psychic effects of the Germany hyperinflation after the First World War.
The depreciation of the citizen went along with that of the German Mark.
There was a loss of face and of worth, in which the personal and the monetary units became confused.
When everything is mechanical, it includes thoughts, money and humans.
I hope that confusion doesn’t return.
Elaine~
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Barkerville, B.C., Canada along the Gold Rush Trail.
Thank you to Mike Maloney for including me in Episode 1 of his bestselling series Hidden Secrets of Money.
Coins and Crowns
words and music Elaine Diane Taylor
SOCAN/ASCAP
from the album Coins and Crowns
Coins and Crowns is featured in Episode 1 of Mike Maloney’s bestselling series Hidden Secrets of Money.
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Not Much of a Holiday (Bank Holidays and Media Persuasion)
words and music Elaine Diane Taylor
Single available on iTunes
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A Terrible Breeze (War and Social Media)
The news comes down
A little bluebird sings
Words of war
Fire and furious things
Of testing might
‘Til no patience knows
If keeping still
Still keeps you safe at home
It’s a terrible breeze
They speak of today
Of threats that used to live a world away
We all know wind
Can blow both ways
And a terrible breeze can blow it all away
A worldwide net
Sees our village grow
Until we all forget
What each one used to know
How a blind bird’s wings
Can reach the shore
And turn the wheel of peace and war
Village fools sinking down, down, down
Debt and gold wound in numbered shrouds
Deal of a life it’s bread and clowns
Can we afford another go around?
The news comes down.
It’s a terrible breeze. The news comes down.
words and music Elaine Diane Taylor
Single available on iTunes
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Preparing for the Fall is a live boutique album — featuring Wag the Dog, Black Swan Dive, American Pie and Gods of the Copybook Headings. Available on iTunes, Google Music, Amazon Music and major digital distributors.
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The Gods of the Copybook Headings
words by Rudyard Kipling and music by Elaine Diane Taylor
from the album Preparing for the Fall.
The copybooks of the early 1900s gave us all the wisdom we need. The sayings that were copied are the truths, the gods of our world. All the empires who followed the gods of the marketplace have fallen, and there’s terror and slaughter when the gods of the copybook headings return. The lyrics are by Rudyard Kipling. One of my gurus.
Another Week on Wall Street
words and music Elaine Diane Taylor
from the album Coins and Crowns.
“A little grease (Greece) is floating out to sea, and little pigs (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) are bobbing up and down. They’ll send a storm and we’ll see, when the tide goes out who’s naked on the beach“.
The European Union didn’t consolidate their debt when the euro was created, so when Greece did its backroom banker deal some benefitted and some nations lost out. Who wants to give up their own sovereignty. So much debt now, and no way to get out of it. So the leaders need to divert attention away from their own collapse. Takes us to the song “Wag the Dog” where they beat the drums of war.
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Nothing on this site is intended as individual investment advice. We’re all watching which way the wind is blowing.
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Elaine Diane Taylor 