3 Minute Gold News – Jim Rickards – Kitco / Collide – Nov. 30, 2017

3 Minute Gold News

A Quick Read for Busy People

A synopsis of a Collide event and an interview with Jim Rickards, New York Times bestselling author of The New Case for Gold, The Death of Money, Currency Wars and The Road to Ruin, with Daniela Cambone at Kitco News.

Jim is the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, Chief Global Strategist for Meraglim Inc., former general counsel for Long Term Capital Management, and a consultant to the U.S. Intelligence community and U.S. Department of Defense.

by: Elaine Diane Taylor

 

Topics:

Interest Rates
Gold

 

Jim Rickards

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Kitco News interview link

Collide link

INTEREST RATES

The big date coming up is the December 3 FOMC meeting where the Federal Reserve sets interest rates.

Will they raise interest rates? The market is giving it a 100% probability.

The prices of gold, the yen, the euro and 10-year treasuries are all locked in based on the market believing interest rates will rise on December 3rd.

Jim believes there’s a lower than 50% probability they will.

Why is the interest rate important?

When the markets are fully priced for a certain event and that event happens then nothing changes. The market was ready for it.

When they’re fully priced for an event and it doesn’t happen then the prices quickly and radically change up or down.

What would stop the Fed from raising rates?

There’s 3 hurdles to clear first before they raise:

1.  The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) is released on November 30.

The Fed uses this obscure data as a benchmark. They want it to be at 2%. The last reading was 1.3% and it’s been flat for 9 months in a row. (It has come in today at 1.4%)

If it comes in at 1.3% -ish again the Fed can’t raise if they’re committed to their 2% inflation target.

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2. The new tax bill vote is coming.

The bill is in the Senate right now. If the vote succeeds it’ll be viewed as inflationary because of the stimulus, so they’ll need to raise rates.

If the tax bill fails then it’ll be deflationary and might even destabilize the stock market. That would be another reason for the Fed not to raise rates.

3. The deadline for shutting down the U.S. government is December 8.

There are issues around funding for the Wall, plus whether the Dreamers will be allowed to stay in the States, plus funding for Planned Parenthood, hurricane relief and issues around the budget deficit.

It would be unlikely for the Fed to raise rates if there’s a shut down.

 

RAISING RATES?

The Fed needs a hot inflation number of maybe 1.6% or higher, a successful passage of the tax bill, and no government shutdown in order to raise interest rates.

Jim believes all three won’t happen and the the Fed won’t raise rates.

If he’s correct it will mean gold soars, the euro goes up and the 10-Year Treasury note rallies.

If the Fed does raise interest rates then those things won’t do much because they’re already priced in for a rate increase.

 

YELLEN AND POWELL

Janet Yellen is going out and Jay Powell is coming in as Fed Chairperson.

Powell is a clone of Yellen so it will be more of the same.

 

$10,000 GOLD

If you have a gold standard, or you’re even using gold as a kind of reference indirectly, then given the amount of gold there is you would have to get the price up to avoid deflation. That price would conservatively be $10,000.

If gold goes from about $1,280 U.S. today to $10,000 then some people would think they made a lot of money, but they’re money would be worth less.

Gas would be $12 and it would be a world of inflation.

But having gold would preserve wealth.

Everything else would be getting wiped out while gold was going up, so it’s good to have gold in that inflationary world.

What events are coming up?

 

Jim Rickards can be found on Twitter and at James Rickards Project.

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Gold is at $1,274.90 U.S. per ounce.

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Elaine Diane Taylor~

November 30, 2017

 

Elaine Diane Taylor Pendant 18Kchain - 5

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A Terrible Breeze    (North Korea and Nuclear War)

The news comes down
A little bluebird sings
Words of war
Of fire and furious things
Of testing might
‘Til no patience knows
If keeping still
Still keeps you safe at home

It’s a terrible breeze
They speak of today
Of threats that used to live a world away
We all know wind
Can blow both ways
And a terrible breeze can blow it all away

A worldwide net
Sees our village grow
Until we all forget
What each one used to know
How a blind bird’s wings
Can reach the shore
And turn that wheel of peace and war

Village fools sinking down, down, down
Debt and gold wound in numbered shrouds
Deal of a life it’s bread and clowns
Can we afford another go around?
The news comes down.

It’s a terrible breeze. The news comes down.

words and music Elaine Diane Taylor
©2017 Elaine Art & Media SOCAN/ASCAP

 

Single available on iTunes

 

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Not Much of a Holiday (Greek Debt and Media Persuasion)

words and music Elaine Diane Taylor

© 2015 Intelligentsia Media, Inc. All rights reserved.

SOCAN/ASCAP

Single available on iTunes

The Greek bank holiday and long lines to get a few euros for the day. Debt deals behind closed doors. The media telling us what opinions to have. China building islands in the South China Sea and claiming all the international waves. More dealing to come. More standing in line for those who owe. Who owes? There’s a long line of nations in debt and this is far from done.

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AlbumCover.PreparingfortheFall

Preparing for the Fall live boutique album available on iTunes — featuring Wag the Dog, Black Swan Dive,  American Pie and Gods of the Copybook Headings.

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Coins and Crowns

words and music Elaine Diane Taylor

© Intelligentsia Media Inc. All rights reserved.

SOCAN/ASCAP

from the album Coins and Crowns available on iTunes

Single featured in Episode 1 of Mike Maloney’s documentary series Hidden Secrets of Money.

 

The Gods of the Copybook Headings

words by Rudyard Kipling and music by Elaine Diane Taylor

©2014 Intelligentsia Media Inc.

SOCAN/ASCAP

from the album Preparing for the Fall available on iTunes

 

The copybooks of the early 1900s gave us all the wisdom we need. The sayings that were copied are the truths, the gods, of our world. All the empires who followed the gods of the marketplace instead have fallen, and there’s terror and slaughter when the gods of the copybook headings return. The lyrics are by Rudyard Kipling. One of my gurus.

Another Week on Wall Street

words and music Elaine Diane Taylor

© 2013 Intelligentsia Media Inc. All rights reserved.

SOCAN/ASCAP

from the album Coins and Crowns available on iTunes

See the bankers wave their Wall Street wands and conjure piles of paper green. Naked short selling is like betting that your neighbour’s house will burn down. But in this scenario it happens to burn down. If the bankers win then we lose the whole world as we know it. I wrote this in 2009, with a lyric “A little grease (Greece) is floating out to sea, and little pigs (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) are bobbing up and down, they’ll send a storm and we’ll see, when the tide goes out who’s naked on the beach“, and it’s coming on now. The world is changing as we know it.

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Nothing on this site is intended as individual investment advice. We’re all watching which way the wind is blowing.

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